As I promised, here is how the cookie may crumble. These figures were handed to me by moles burrowed deep in Bukit Aman, at MINDEF, from UMNO politicians and the boys and girls from Putrajaya whose tongues were made light and easy after nights out in town. I am surprised to hear of the extensive rejection of people in the Forces towards UMNO and BN. Pleasantly surprised that is.
My own feeling is there will be reversal of positions. In this coming elections, PR will get what BN got in 2008- 140 seats or thereabouts and the balance going to BN. when that happens, more will abandon the BN ship especially from the UMNO camp.As for now, what these shadows tell me are as follows:-
Table 1: The possible outcome in GE13.
no
|
STATE
|
PR
|
BN
|
1
|
PERLIS
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
KEDAH
|
13
|
2
|
3
|
KELANTAN
|
13
|
1
|
4
|
TERENGGANU
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
PENANG
|
12
|
1
|
6
|
PERAK
|
18
|
6
|
7
|
PAHANG
|
5
|
9
|
8
|
SELANGOR
|
20
|
2
|
9
|
WILAYAH PERSEKUTUAN
|
10
|
1
|
10
|
PUTRAJAYA
|
0
|
1
|
11
|
NEGRI SEMBILAN
|
6
|
2
|
12
|
MELAKA
|
2
|
4
|
13
|
JOHOR
|
12
|
14
|
14
|
LABUAN
|
1
|
0
|
15
|
SABAH
|
12
|
13
|
16
|
SARAWAK
|
16
|
15
|
145
|
77
|
The table above is even more bullish than the analyses which I have made on several occasions. Having examined the data given to me, here is my take.
In Perlis, the seat that is most likely to fall is Arau. In 2008, PR obtained almost 49% of the votes casted. A swing of 5% of the votes this time to PR, will result in BN losing the seat.
In Kedah, the 2 seats that appear safe for BN are Langkawi and KUbang Pasu. BN’s most comfortable seat is Langkawi. In Langkawi although the opposition increased its share of the votes, BN starts with a strong existing vote bank. Similarly, in KUbang Pasu, in 2008, the opposition obtained 40% of the votes and increased its share of the votes by 9%. So perhaps, it’s time for Najib to move MUkhriz Mahathir to Langkawi so that he can continue to be an MP on the opposition bench in the next parliament.
In Kelantan, besides Tengku Razaleigh , I would have thought the bland and colourless Mustafa Mohamad would be able to retain his seat. It appears the tide is turning against him principally because of his stand on the oil royalty issue of Kelantan. Here is a son of Kelantan who's opposed to giving Kelantan people their oil royalty unless its managed by UMNO. UMNO people are thieves who will not lose a second in getting their hands in the till. The people handing me the numbers insist that Mustafa Mohamad will get the boot this time.
What about those PR MPs who are seen to be under-performing? These will be replaced by determined and dedicated candidates who will continue to benefit from the overall support for PAS’s spiritual leader.
I have already touched on Terengganu in my earlier article. I predicted that PR will get 5 seats. According to the intelligence sources, PR would probably get 4 seats. Which is what PAS's secgen, Dato Mustafa Ali maintained. Earlier I thought, BN may lose Besut if it retains Abdullah Mat Zain , the incumbent. The man is hardly there. Will Mat Said be willing to select his arch enemy Idris Jusoh to contest in Besut? Otherwise according to these sources, BN will likely retain Besut, Setiu, Kemaman and Hulu Terengganu. That makes it 4-4.
In Penang, the only seat safe for BN is Tasek Gelugor. If Pak Lah stands again in Kepala Batas, he will lose. His replacement, whether its Reezal Merican or even son in law Khairy, will also be defeated. What else is left for Pak Lah to prove?
In Perak the relative safer seats for BN are to be found in (1) Gerik (2) Lenggong (3) Parit (4) Tapah (5) Bagan Datoh and (6) Tanjung Malim. Out of these 6, the weakest links are found in Bagan Datoh and Parit. So, people out there if you want to kick out Zahid Hamidi from Bagan Datoh, come out in full force to vote in PR13.
Please wait for the next installment of the forecast.In the meantime, see how the BN leaders are squirming. Some of them insist that BN will get a 2/3 majority. Meanwhile, Najib goes to Mahathir and says- please save me. He tweets to all and sundry, save Kedah. Why the plaintiff cries when you are confident of winning 2/3 majority?
To the rest of us, it should and must be- save the rakyat from the clutches of the evil BN government.
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